Global excess liquidity has triggered large fluctuations in asset prices, and the superposition of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has led to a mismatch of supply and demand. Non-ferrous commodities such as copper and aluminum staged a rare bull market.
- From a macro perspective, the U.S. non-agricultural employment data is far below expectations, and the market expects the Fed to continue its dovish policy. Last week, the net fund holdings rebounded rapidly, and the copper trading sentiment in the international market heated up.
- From a fundamental point of view, TC still maintains a momentum of recovery, and the strike of Chilean copper mine workers has ended; from the demand side, the price difference of refined copper scrap is at a historical low level. When the price drops to a low level, scrap copper holders are reluctant to sell. The market shifted to refined copper consumption.
- However, with the advent of September and October, consumption has entered a seasonal peak season and new energy demand has long been positive for copper prices. Short-term long-term factors are intertwined, and Shanghai Copper fluctuates within the range.